When you bet a parlay, you’re grouping a set of wagers into a
single bet that only pays out if all of the bets in that group
win. When you’re evaluating a parlay, you should evaluate all of
the bets as if they were single wagers to determine their value.
Let's say you want to bet $100 on the Tampa Bay Bucs to win the
Superbowl. If you make that bet at -110 odds, you're betting
$110 to win $100.
At -110 odds, that means you will need to win 52.4% of your bets
to break even. As we add more legs, the target win rate drops
|Number of Legs
||Return per unit bet
||Target win rate
I know what you’re thinking.
point seven percent - so you’re saying there is a chance?
No, not really.
Let's say we live in a fair world (we don't) and you're betting $100
on a 4 leg NFL parlay. Even if we assume every game has roughly
50% chance of hitting,
if we multiply those 4 games together, that gives us a 6.3%
chance of winning every leg.
.50 * .50 *.50 * .50 = .0625
That means you’re 6.3% of the time you win $1000 (with a measly
10-1 payout) and the other 93.7% of the time you lose $100.
No wonder the bookies son goes to private school.