When you bet a parlay, you’re grouping a set of wagers into a
single bet that only pays out if all of the bets in that group
win. When you’re evaluating a parlay, you should evaluate all of
the bets as if they were single wagers to determine their value.
Let's say you want to bet $100 on the Tampa Bay Bucs to win the
Superbowl. If you make that bet at -110 odds, you're betting
$110 to win $100.
At -110 odds, that means you will need to win 52.4% of your bets
to break even. As we add more legs, the target win rate drops
sharply.
Number of Legs |
Return per unit bet |
Odds |
Target win rate |
2 |
3.6 |
+260 |
27.7% |
3 |
7 |
+600 |
14.3% |
4 |
13 |
+1200 |
7.7% |
5 |
25 |
+2400 |
4.0% |
6 |
46 |
+4500 |
2.2% |
7 |
81 |
+8000 |
1.2% |
I know what you’re thinking.
point seven percent - so you’re saying there is a chance?
No, not really.
Let's say we live in a fair world (we don't) and you're betting $100
on a 4 leg NFL parlay. Even if we assume every game has roughly
50% chance of hitting,
if we multiply those 4 games together, that gives us a 6.3%
chance of winning every leg.
.50 * .50 *.50 * .50 = .0625
That means you’re 6.3% of the time you win $1000 (with a measly
10-1 payout) and the other 93.7% of the time you lose $100.
Yikes.
No wonder the bookies son goes to private school.